BUSHoes

This incident had me in side-splitting laughter. At the end of 8 years in office, there couldn't have been a more better farewell for this joke of a president. Oh, why didn't the shoes hit him? Why! Why! Why!

"This is a farewell kiss, you dog. This is from the widows, the orphans and those who were killed in Iraq." - This is what the Iraqi journalist, Muntadar al-Zeidi, yelled before insulting, arguably and laughingly, the most powerful man on the planet.

How does America react to this? Does it ban shoes in press conferences? Or will it now provide training on how to dodge shoes? Or, better yet, how to pick them up and throw it back? Didn't the SS expect this? Oh, they didn't?! Where is their ground-breaking, state of art intelligence now?

The president of America, the leader of the new world, commander-in-chief of the most powerful army in the world, all this and more. And this is the kind of treatment he gets?

There couldn't have been a more degrading, insulting, debasing, cheapening thing than this for the man. And thoroughly well deserved.

And a small note for Mr. Obama: Boy, you have some pretty lofty 'shoes' to fill in, eh? ;)

Mumbai Attacks and Politics

The Mumbai terror attacks, despite being tragic for all those who lost their lives, also stinks. It stinks of a very large political scandal that seems to overshadow all the obvious evidences (read: planted evidences). There has to be more to this story that just a handful of 20 year olds walking into Mumbai and wrecking havoc. Doesn't it sound too naive?

Or is it just a coincidence that the men who was on the verge of uncovering the real masterminds behind the Malegaon blasts gets martyred (read: ASSASSINATED). For the first time, we had some evidence of political motives and politicians behind attacks and not just Islamic fundamentalists or Jihadis. Who were they going to unmask? But it's all lost now. Is anyone talking about Malegaon now?

So who was really behind these attacks? Yes, the LET did this. But who 'sponsored' them? Some evidence points to the Musad due to attacks on Jews. Could be possible? But if it was Musad, wouldn't the terrorists have completely wiped out Nariman House? Why is it that the terrorists kept hostages and did not come up with a single demand? Couldn't they have traded the lives of the hostages with their own? Why didn't they even try? And why is it that only 1 terrorist was 'left' alive? Obviously, they needed someone to tell the story. And here is a pic of the guy 'they' left alive.


Look closely. See any thing similar in these two pictures? Just an observation but worth a thought. The second snap was taken during the Godhra aftermaths.

I think Nariman House was just a divert. Likewise for all other places. Their main targets were Hemant Karkare, Ashok Kale and Vijay Salazar amongst others. The motive was to prove the inefficiencies of the central government and to make terrorism the main subject of the next elections. The idea was to scare the hell out of every Indian and, in the process, save their asses. I think this plot was hatched in India, by Indian politicians and for political motives. The timing couldn't be better, isn't it? Or is all this again just a coincidence?

Do we want another war? Hell, NO! But where is all this pointing to? Who are going to be worst affected? India and Indian citizens. Hindus and Muslims alike. At what cost? And for what reason? For one political party trying to topple another and come to power. What are they going to promise this time? Education for all, better healthcare, lower taxes, better foreign policy, greener India, more jobs? I bet it's gonna be none of this.

This is politics and it stinks.

Also read what fellow blogger Priyanka wrote on the same subject. I couldn't agree more.
http://acaseofme.blogspot.com/2008/11/dont-listen-to-me-im-just-citizen.html

Mamta vs Obama

Mamta Banerjee has said that she is the Obama of India!

(Silence)

(More silence and trying to keep a straight face)

Couldn't hold it any longer and I burst out laughing! This was was most hilarious piece of news I've heard since Obama got elected or even since the day he decided to run for office.

Mamta Banerjee comparing herself with Barack Obama.

(Another bout of hysterical laugher)

What are these freakin politicians thinking? Or do they even think? Clearly, they don't. But that's a well known fact. So what made this lady call herself the Obama of India? (I still can't take that smirk off my face) And what more, who all believed her? I am prepared to be shocked. After this, I think I can take anything!

Not to be one-sided, isn't it too early for any comparisons? I mean, Obama has not even taken office yet. He has just promised. Only time will tell. Can he really open 2.5 million jobs next year or in the next 2 years? Will he take troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan? On education (No-child-left-behind reform and cheaper education), Environment (Investments in alternative fuels, reduced dependence on Middle East oil, More green jobs etc), Healthcare (Put things back together from the tatters left by the Bush administration), Taxes (Proposed tax cut and tax relief) and Women (His proposed policies against women inequalities)? Is he going to live up to all this?

It's all too early to tell. As for Mrs. Banerjee, I'd really be interested to learn how she plans to be the Indian Obama!!!

The Black Swan theory

I came across a really thoughtful theory this morning - The Black Swan Theory.

This theory talks about taking into consideration high-impact, tough-to-predict, rare events beyond the realms of human imagination. We humans are hopelessly poor in predicting the future. We underestimate the extremes in our range of outcomes. We jump to conclusions using every piece of information that confirms out outlook and conveniently ignore the ones that make us rethink.

So what happens if these extremes occur? These unexpected events have a far more significant impact on us compared to those mundane, predictable events taking place daily. For instance, take 9/11 or the invention of the Internet or the dot com crash or the great depression or the personal computer, world war one or even the ongoing sub prime crisis - all these events have had an epochal impact on us.

Now think monetarily. Few who predicted such events were in far better shape than most. For some, their losses were minimal. For some more, they even made some money. And for many others, lots of money!

The black swan theory could be a smart tool for investment. Lets say, you invest 85-90% on regular, predictable, safe bets. Now, how about finding those 'black swans' for the remaining 10%? Think of some radical ideals to bet on as black swans. What could be the next big thing that could happen in a year or two? Technology breakthroughs, global recession, war, revolution, peace, hyper inflation etc. Sure, you may not have a well-defined ROI or, for that matter, not even know where to bet or if it is even practically possible but just think about it. It is a start. Consider the what-if scenarios! The idea is not to invest in these as a fall back option (for a rainy day) but use these to spread your portfolio. To make some money. Don't expect to win many of them. But the ones that you win, will be nothing less than a jackpot.

And how about using this theory not just for investments but also in our personal lives? Is it possible?

Inflation in UAE

For years I never understood inflation. Not even the definition nor the concept. All I knew was that the prices increased. Stuff got dearer. But why? No clue. How? No idea!

Then I moved to the Gulf last September. And this region has been experiencing a double digit inflation. So I was forced to take notice. What the hell is happening here? The cost of every damn commodity is sky rocketing. Two of the most talked about problems the region is currently facing are the rising cost of living and the depreciating value and purchasing power of the local currency, both of which are directly related to inflation. This made me think. Isn't this the most natural phenomenon for any region known for its exponential growth? And also for it's artificiality!

I think this is a direct result of being complacent. Anyone who knows two of the most commonly used words in macro economics will understand what I am talking about. 'Demand' and 'Supply'. When there is excessive demand for a certain commodity, the prices will go up. When there is a monopolistic scenario where greedy traders control the market, the prices will go up. When there is no liaising within the UAE on fiscal policy, the prices will go up. The fact of the matter is that the country has bit more than it can chew. It is a vicious circle. With increasing multi-billion dollar real estate projects, millions will be required to populate the offices and residential units. This will in-turn increase demand exponentially for basic commodities like food, schools, hospitals, transportation and other factors that go into an individual's monthly expenditure. Where there is demand, there is inflation. Inflation and development go hand in hand. To reduce inflation, demand has to come down. And, with the number of projects announced daily, this may not be far away.

Increasing interest rates will not help. It will only reduce liquidity in the market. People will not be able to buy those billion dollar properties. That will reduce the demand. And they can't afford to do that. They need the money. It is a double edged sword. In all cases, they need to sustain high demands. But inflation hits all commodities. Even the industry that started it all - Real Estate. Thus higher costs will also affect the developers. Several will go bust, leaving incomplete projects, and in some cases, projects not even started with desperate investors in the lurch. What next? Chaos. Damaged reputation. Demand falls. In the meantime, with the US economy under recession, what happens if the dollar peg breaks? The value of the local currency increases that will paralyze the non-oil economy as it will drive exports down and make it more expensive to sell property. Demand falls further. What next? Oil prices? US-Iran crisis? I don't want to think any further.

For now, I am happy to buy a tin of Nido for Dh 74, which was Dh 30 a couple of years back, and pray......that my employer increases my salary! :)